北京快乐8软件

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专家视点: 新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济长期影响有限
2020-02-10 | 编辑:

  来源:北京快乐8_北京快乐8软件|官网

北京快乐8软件    xinguanfeiyanyiqingzibaofahemanyanyilai,duiwoguojingjifazhanchanshengleyidingdechongji。

  lianrilai,zhongguokebeijingkuaile8ruanjianyucekexueyanjiuzhongxinzuzhile5geketizu,shejiyiqingduijingjidezongheyingxiang、zhongdianxingye、waimao、quyujingji、jinrongshichangdeng,muqiangongxingcheng5piangongzhengfukexuejuecedejianyibaogao。

北京快乐8软件  duici,《zhongguokexuebao》jizhezhuanfanglezhongguokebeijingkuaile8ruanjianyucekexueyanjiuzhongxinfuzhuren、yanjiuyuanyangcuihong,yaoqingtazuoxiangguanjiedu。

  《中国科学报》: 整体来看,新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济影响程度如何?影响程度取决于哪些因素? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

北京快乐8软件  genjupinggu,beijingkuaile8ruanjiandechudeyigejibenguandianshi: dangqian,yiqingdefangkongxingshirengranshifenyanjun,yiqingdefashenghekuaisumanyanzaiduanqinei(zhidiyijidu)duiwoguojingjizaochenglejiaodadechongji。

  danruguoduanqineiyiqingdedaokongzhi,dui2020nianquannianjingjiyingxiangshiyouxiande。

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  《中国科学报》: 你们以什么依据作出“影响有限”的判断的? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

  beijingkuaile8ruanjianrenwei,congzhangqilaikan,yiqingduizhongguojingjifazhandeyingxiangyouxian。zheilidezhangqishizhi2020nianquannianjiweilaijinian。

北京快乐8软件  zhisuoyishuoyingxiang“youxian”,beijingkuaile8ruanjianzhuyaokaolvyixiajigeyinsu:

  diyi,zhongyanghedifanggejizhengfuchutailehuojiangchutairuoganjingjizhengceyihuanjieyiqingzaochengdebuliyingxiang,zheixiezhengceyouwangjiangdiyiqingdefumianchongji。

北京快乐8软件  hongguanzhengcecengmian,huobizhengcehecaizhengzhengcelidudouyousuozengjia,jiaqiangle"nizhouqi"diaojie。

北京快乐8软件  liru,2020nian2yue3rizhongguorenminyinxingyililvzhaobiaofangshikaizhanle1.2wanyiyuangongkaishichangnihuigoucaozuo,bujintigonglehelichongyudeliudongxing,erqieyindaoledaikuanshichangbaojialilv(lpr)jinyibuxiaxing,tuidongqiyerongzichengbenxiajiang。

  dier,jinguanyiqingduidaduoshuzhizaoyechanshengleyidingdefuxiangchongji,danyeduiyixiexingyechanshenglezhengxiangladongzuoyong,ruyiyaozhizaoye、yiliaoshebeizhizaoyedeng。

  ciwai,suizheyiqingzhubudedaokongzhi,yiqingfashengqijianbeiyizhidexiaofei、touzidengxuqiujiangbeishifang,congerzaiyidingchengdushangdaidongxiaofeihetouzidefandan,zhichengjingjidehuifuhezengzhang。

  disan,suiranwhojiangciciyiqingliewei“guojiguanzhudetufagonggongweishengjinjishijian”(pheic),danduizhongguofangkongyiqingchongmanxinxin。

  genjuwho“guojiweishengtiaoli”(2005),zaiwhofabuweipheichou,kegenjudisishijiutiaoguidingdechengxusuishichexiao,bingyingzaigongbusangeyuehouzidongshixiao。

  ruguoduanqineiyiqingdedaoyouxiaokongzhi,yuqiguojishehuiduiyiqingdefangkongjianghuizhubujiechu,woguowaimaoyejiangchuxianhuifuxingzengzhang。

  dangran,zheiqizhongcunzaizhuduobuquedingxing,zuizhuyaodeshiyiqingnengfouzaidiyijidudedaoyouxiaokongzhi,zheijiangchengweijingjifazhandezhongyaoyingxiangyinsu。

  《中国科学报》: 此次疫情具体对哪些行业产业影响较大? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

北京快乐8软件  congxingyecengmiankan,yiqingduibeijingkuaile8ruanjianyetebieshijiaotongyunshuye(youqishikeyun)、lvyou、zhusucanyindengzhongdianxingyedechongjixiangduizhijieheyanzhong。

  beijingkuaile8ruanjiankeyikandao,chunjieqijiankeyunliangdafuxiajiang、canguanguanmen、zhusukeliuliangdajiandeng。

  ciwai,duiyupifalingshou、wenhuayuledeyingxiangyexiangduijiaoweiyanzhong。youqiduidianyingxingye,zaichunjiehuangjindang,yuanxiandianyingquanbuchechu,gaixingyezaihouqihuifunanduxiangduijiaoda。

北京快乐8软件  zongdelaishuo,shejidaorenyuanjujidebeijingkuaile8ruanjianyedouhuishoudaojiaodachongji。

北京快乐8软件  congchanyelaishuo,ruoyiqingnengzaiduanqineidedaoyouxiaokongzhi,yujiduidiyichanyedeyingxiangxiangduiyouxian。

北京快乐8软件  danshouchunjiejiaqiyanzhang、jiehoufugongnandujiadayijishangxiayouchanyeliantiaochuandaodengyinsudeyingxiang,yiqingyehuizaiyidingchengdushangyingxiangzhizaoyedewendingzengzhang。

北京快乐8软件  jiuqiyeeryan,zhongxiaoweiqiyeshoudaodechongjishifeichangzhijiede,yinweiqiyingduiyiqing、zijinlianduanliehetinggongtingchandenenglixiangduijiaoruo;zuoweijingjishehuixitongboruohuanjie,zhongxiaoweiqiyedejiehoushengchanzhongqihechixujingyingsuochanshengdeyanzhongchongjixuyaoshoudaogaoduzhongshi,zheixieqiyeshixinajiuyedezhulijun,ruguobujishicaiquyouxiaodejiuzhucuoshi,jiangkenengduijiuyechanshengjiaodadechongji。

  zaijinchukoufangmian,shoudaobufenjingjitideyiqingguankongcuoshiyijiguojishehuiduiyiqingdeyuqidengyinsuyingxiang,woguodeduiwaimaoyihekuajingtouzi、guojihezuodoujiangshoudaoyidingchongji。

  《中国科学报》: 有人认为,疫情可能改变我国目前经济增长趋势,促成经济拐点,您如何看? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

  worenwei,ruguoduanqineiyiqingdedaoyouxiaokongzhidehua,buhuichuxianjingjiguaidian,quanniandejingjizengzhangsuduhaishinenggoudedaoyidingdebaozhang。

  《中国科学报》: 2003年SARS疫情过后,我国经济得到很快恢复,此次疫情后的经济恢复是否有较大难度? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

  queshi,benciyiqinghe“feidian”yiqingshiwoguosuochudejingjibeijingyouhendachabie。

  “feidian”shiqiwoguogdpgaosuzengzhang、shijieshichangqianlijuda,er2019nianzhongguojingjizengzhangzhubufanghuan,disan、sijidugdpzengsuxiajiangdao6.0%,weilishixingxindi,tongshiquanqiujingjifusufali,chukouzengsuxiahua。

北京快乐8软件  cicijingjihuifudenandudayu“feidian”shiqi。

  《中国科学报》: 为有效缓解疫情对我国经济的短期冲击,预防经济较大幅度下滑,您有哪些建议? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

  beijingkuaile8ruanjiandejutijianyibaokuo:

  yishixuyaozhongdianguanzhuqiyetebieshizhongxiaoqiyedeshengchanhejingying,caiquduozhongcuoshi,qieshijiangdiqiyederongzichengben、wendingrenyuanduiwu。

北京快乐8软件  jitianlai,suzhoushi,shandongsheng、zhejiangsheng、beijingshidengbufenshengshiyijingxiangjichutairuogancuoshibangzhuqiyegongdunanguan,xiwanggengduodiqujinkuaichutaizhichicuoshi。

  ershiduiyiqingqijianshouyingxiangbijiaoyanzhongdejiaotongyunshu、lvyou、canyindengxingye,jianyijinyibushixingdingxiangdeshuishoujianmiancuoshi,yibufendikouqikuisunedu,zhichihouxufazhan。

北京快乐8软件  sanshizhenduiduanqineiyiqingduishengchanhewaimaodechongji,chutaiyingjicuoshi,baokuojianmianzujin、jianshuijiangfei、fangsongmaoyixindaizhichi。

北京快乐8软件  sishixuyaojinyibujiaqiangxinxigongkai,youxiaochuandajingjizhengcedeyitu,zuodaoxinxitouming,jieshouyulunjiandu,genghaodiyindaoyuqihetizhenxinxin。

  wushiyaozheyanzhangyuanfazhantuijingexiangjingjizhidudewanshan,liru,youhuacaizhengzhichujiegou,goujiangengjiayouxiaodepuhuiyiliaoweishengtizhi,tuijinzhongdagonggongweishengtufashijianyingjijizhibeijingkuaile8ruanjiandeng。

  《中国科学报》: 预测中心采用了哪些方法对此次经济形势进行预测? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

  zhuyaoshijiyuxitongzongheyinsuyucefa,beijingkuaile8ruanjianfenbiecongsandachanye、sandaxuqiujiaoduduijingjixingshijinxingyuce,jiehezhuanjiapanduan。

  lingwai,jiehejingjijingqifenxifa,kaolvzhizaoyecaigoujinglizhishu、feizhizaoyeshangwuhuodongzhishudengdebiandongqingkuangdeng。

  《中国科学报》: 根据目前的研究以及过去的经验,您现在还有哪些担心的问题? 

  ▲ 杨翠红:  

北京快乐8软件  zuidanxindehaishiyiqingdechixushijian。

  buguo,beijingkuaile8ruanjianxianzaiduiyiqingfangkongyingchongmanxinxin,woguozhengfucaiquqiangliyouxiaocuoshi,jiashangguojishehuizhichi,beijingkuaile8ruanjianshenxinyiqingyidingnengzaiduanqineidedaoyouxiaokongzhi。

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